Argentina and Chile Plan to Establish a Regional Copper Hub; LME Copper Fluctuated and Closed Lower Overnight [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

Friday, September 19, 2025
Futures: Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,954.5/mt, initially fluctuated upward to a high of $9,973/mt, then fluctuated downward to a low of $9,917/mt, before unilaterally fluctuating upward and finally closing at $9,946/mt, down 0.28%, with trading volume reaching 15,000 lots and open interest reaching 290,000 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2511 contract opened at 79,680 yuan/mt, initially touched a high of 79,810 yuan/mt, then fluctuated downward to a low of 79,530 yuan/mt, before fluctuating considerably and finally closing at 79,660 yuan/mt, down 0.15%, with trading volume reaching 18,000 lots and open interest reaching 173,000 lots.

[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes] News:
(1) On September 17, Vicuña, a joint venture between BHP and Lundin Mining, announced an investment of over $400 million to advance the Filo del Sol and Josemaría copper mine projects located at the border of Argentina and Chile, aiming to build a regional copper hub. The project is designed to process 175,000 mt of ore per day, with mine life extended to 25 years, and is expected to commence production in 2030. The company is applying for Argentina's Large Investment Incentive Program (RIGI) to enjoy tax and exchange rate benefits. Veteran mining executive Ron Hochstein will assume the role of CEO on November 7.

Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On September 18, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month 2510 contract were reported at parity to a premium of 140 yuan/mt, with the average price quoted at a premium of 70 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; SMM #1 copper cathode prices ranged from 79,880 to 80,100 yuan/mt. In the morning session, the SHFE copper 2510 contract continuously rose from a low of 79,740 yuan/mt, and spot transactions were concentrated during the trading session when futures touched the 80,000 yuan/mt mark again, but it was "fleeting," indicating a lack of market confidence in copper prices above 80,000 yuan/mt. The intermonth spread showed BACK10-BACK30 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to tomorrow, with copper prices falling and coinciding with Friday, downstream buying interest is expected to continue, and premiums have hope of stabilizing.

(2) Guangdong: On September 18, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract were reported at a discount of 30 yuan/mt to a premium of 90 yuan/mt, with the average premium at 60 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was reported at a discount of 60 yuan/mt to a discount of 40 yuan/mt, with the average discount at 50 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 79,965 yuan/mt, down 680 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 79,855 yuan/mt, down 690 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, both inventory and copper prices declined, stimulating suppliers to refuse to budge on prices and sell goods.

(3) Imported copper: On September 18, warrant prices were $50 to $62/mt, QP October, with the average price up $1/mt from the previous trading day; B/L prices were $52 to $64/mt, QP October, with the average price up $2/mt from the previous trading day; EQ copper (CIF B/L) was $22/mt to $34/mt, QP October, with the average price up $3/mt from the previous trading day. Quotations referred to cargoes arriving in late September and early October.

(4) Secondary copper: On September 18 at 11:30, the futures closing price was 79,870 yuan/mt, down 730 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average spot premium/discount was 70 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Today, the price of recycled copper raw materials fell 300 yuan/mt MoM. The price of bare bright copper in Guangdong was 73,500-73,700 yuan/mt, down 300 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 1,642 yuan/mt, down 401 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 830 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, as copper prices pulled back further, many traders began to pick up goods from secondary copper rod enterprises, while secondary copper rod enterprises indicated that almost all furnaces produced daily were shipped out, and currently, finished product inventories were nearly depleted. According to SMM, the surveyed secondary copper rod enterprises had orders on hand ranging from 500 to 1,000 mt to be delivered, and currently, secondary copper rod enterprises are mainly focused on completing orders on hand.

(5) Inventory: On September 17, LME copper cathode inventories decreased by 900 mt to 148,875 mt; on September 18, SHFE warrant inventories decreased by 822 mt to 32,469 mt.

Prices: On the macro front, the initial US jobless claims figure showed the largest drop in nearly four years, but it was later exposed to have statistical errors; Trump called for lower oil prices to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict, while international crude oil continued to decline due to a supply surplus and weak demand in the US, with WTI crude oil closing down 1.03%, further suppressing copper prices. On the fundamentals side, supply side, arrivals of both imported copper and domestic copper supplies decreased. Demand side, stimulated by the pullback in copper prices, downstream procurement demand recovered slightly. Inventory side, as of Thursday, September 18, SMM statistics showed that copper inventories in mainstream regions across China decreased by 5,300 mt from Monday to 148,900 mt. Overall, copper prices are expected to remain supported today.

[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]